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Nigerian oil money expected to dry up from 2012
A fresh wake-up call has gone to the governments in Nigeria and the
ruling elite that unless urgent action is taken to free the nation from
the bondage of oil wealth, the future of the Nigerian civilization is in
jeopardy. This was the kernel of a presentation made at the Iju
Quarterly Forum on Public Affairs by a retired federal permanent
secretary, Mr Segun Ogunkua. The Iju Forum is the initiative of renowned
scholar, Prof. Ladipo Adamolekun.
Mr Ogunkua's presentation which was titled: "Thinking Through Nigeria's
Oil Wealth Beyond 2012", raised alarm about the possibility of there
being few or no buyers for Nigeria's oil as from 2012, with attendant
consequences of economic dislocation when the current Kyoto Protocol
will expire.
Ogunkua, after tracing various efforts and initiatives to develop
alternatives to fossil fuels (petroleum products), said that "the most
important agenda for the international community in the 21st century is
saving the earth, which has become completely degraded by the carbon
emissions of industrialized nations... . 2012 will be the first time
that the world will engage in the next comprehensive assessment of the
collective effort to save the environment when the current Kyoto
Protocol expires."
Speaking further, he said that many industrialized nations have adopted
the year 2012 as a target year in the effort to reduce greenhouse gases
emissions, about which there are plans by "many nations to replace
fossil fuel with alternative fuel since the combustion of fossil fuel is
the greatest contributor to carbon dioxide emission."
For Nigeria, he said, this has great implications for the future from
2012 and beyond. His words:
"Since it is clear that the solution to the problem for which the agenda
of national and international co-operation has converged means changing
radically the architecture of fuel energy stock away from fossil fuel
and the high probability that the goal will be achieved, Nigeria is
asking the wrong question with respect to the resources to fund her
development process. The basic question underpinning the process of
Nigeria's development is what happens when revenue from oil dries up."
He added that "the survival of the Nigerian civilization is linked up
with her ability to free herself from the oil wealth, which might become
her oil doom."
As a way out, he recommended that Nigeria, as a matter of urgency should
radically change the question underpinning the management of budgeting
and public expenditure; redirect planning and development process
towards agriculture; emulate the Brazil model; aggressively pursue the
34 Metals Initiative; and invest in development of technology.
Other suggestions to avert disaster in the future include initiation of
massive and effective tax reforms; massive investments in
infrastructure, establishment of departments of future fuels in selected
universities; the establishment of a think tank on the future of Nigeria
without petroleum, and above all, massive investment in the Nigerian
citizenry.
The Iju Quarterly Forum on Public Affairs, promoted by Prof Ladipo
Adamolekun which was the ninth in the series, started in January 2006.
The next will be held in April. The forum drew attendance from an
accomplished spectrum of the Nigerian society.
Speaking during the question and answer session, Mr Akin Adaramola,
remarked that the fundamental problem with the management of public
affairs in Nigeria is complacency, since "we are too comfortable”.
“When we had no oil, we could sit down and plan, as evidenced by
developments in the old Western Region. It is because we make easy money
from oil. We are sure there will be money to share every month.”
In her own contribution, Mrs Duyilemi from Adekunle Ajasin University,
in Akungba-Akoko, wondered whether our leaders needed a retreat on how
to govern us properly, or really serve.
Leo Ndimere of Spectrum Books said that "we don't have energy in
Nigeria. If we do, we won't be spending billions of naira daily buying
generators and fuelling them. Really, there's a big disconnect between
policy makers and the people. Mr. Ogunkua's paper talked basically of a
shift in energy demand. Where are our scientists?”
Contributing, co-convener of the Iju Forum, Mrs Jumoke Adamolekun, urged
all present to see what can be done immediately.
She said that participants should see what they can individually do to
grow bio fuel feedstock.
